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HOW TO CALCULATE POWER RATINGS

How To Calculate Power Ratings
by Website Staff

Many sports bettors use basketball and football statistics to calculate power ratings which gives them a convenient and useful ranking system. Power ratings can also be used to create a mock pointspread. A difference between the pointspread created by the sports bettor and the odds offered by the sportsbook may indicate value for the bettor.

Basic Power Rating

Margin of victory, points scored minus points scored against is the most common calculation used to formulate power ratiings. In the following examples all teams have played four games.

a = game one margin of victory
b = game two margin of victory
c = game three margin of victory
d = game four margin of victory
e = number of games played

Basic PR = (a + b + c + d) /e + 100

Weighted Power Rating

It is logical to assume that a team's most recent results are the best indicators of how they will perform in their next game. To account for this tendency, it is necessary to give more weight to recent games.

For each team multiply the margin of victory for every game by the numerical order in whch it was played. The margin of victory for game one is multiplied by 1, the margin of victory for game two is multiplied by 2 and so forth.

Therefore game four will have a weight of 4 which is twice as much as game two and four times as much as game one. The weighted margins for each team's games are added and divided by the sum of the multipliers. After four games the multiplier sum is ten. 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10.

a = game one margin of victory
b = game two margin of victory
c = game three margin of victory
d = game four margin of victory
e = multiplier sum

Weighted PR = (a*1 + b*2 + c*3 + d*4) /e + 100

Final Power Rating

Unfortunately, basic power ratings do not consider a team's strength of schedule. A more accurate power rating can be calculated by averaging either a team's Basic PR or Weighted PR with the power ratings from their previous opponents.

u = team power rating
v = opponent one power rating
w = opponent two power rating
x = opponent three power rating
y = opponent four power rating
z = number of opponents

Final PR = (u + (v + w + x + y) /z) /2

Mock Pointspread

Power ratings can be used to predict the outcome of a game. Subtract the Away Team PR from the Home Team PR, add 3.0 points for home field advantage and multiply the result by (-1). A negative pointspread indicates a Home Favorite and a positive pointspread indicates a Home Underdog.

Pointspread = ((Home Team PR - Away Team PR) + 3.0) *-1

Example:
Home Team PR = 104.0
Away Team PR = 99.5

Pointspread = ((104.0 – 99.5) + 3.0) *-1 = -7.5

It is predicted that the home team will win the game by 7.5 points.

As the season progresses and data is collected the power ratings will become more accurate, but It may be necessary to rely on other handicapping techniques early in the schedule.


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