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HOW TO CALCULATE POWER RATINGS

How To Calculate Power Ratings
by Website Staff

Basic Power Rating

Many sports bettors use statistics to calculate power ratings or rankings and create a mock pointspread which is compared with the sportsbooks line. A difference between the pointspread created by the sports bettor and the odds the sportsbook is offering may indicate value for the bettor. The most common statistics used to calculate power ratings are points scored and points scored against.

Basic PR = (Total Points Scored - Total Points Scored Against) /Games Played +100

Advanced Power Rating

Unfortunately, basic power ratings do not consider a team's strength of schedule. A more accurate power rating can be calculated by averaging a team’s Basic PR with the power ratings of all their previous opponents. First create an Opponent Average PR by averaging the Basic PR of all the opponents.

Opponent Average PR = (Opponent1 Basic PR + Opponent2 Basic PR + …) /Number of Opponents

Advanced PR = (Basic PR + Opponent Average PR) /2

Weighted Advanced Power Rating

It is logical to assume that a teams most recent results are a good indicator of how they will perform in their next game. To account for this fact, it is necessary to give more weight to recent games.

Calculate a second advanced power rating for each team using only recent games (Recent Advanced PR). Averaging the two advanced power ratings doubles the weight of recent games because they are used twice in the formula.

Weighted Advanced PR = (Advanced PR + Recent Advanced PR) /2

Mock Pointspread

Power ratings can be used to predict the outcome of a game. Subtract the Away Team PR from the Home Team PR, add 3.0 points for home field advantage and multiply the result by (-1) to show the Favorite as a negative number. A negative pointspread indicates a Home Favorite and a positive pointspread indicates a Home Underdog.

Example:
Home Team PR = 104.0 and Away Team PR = 99.5

Pointspread = ((Home Team PR - Away Team PR) + 3.0) *-1

= ((104.0 – 99.5) + 3.0) *-1 = -7.5

It is predicted that the home team will win the game by 7.5 points.

As the season progresses and data is collected the power ratings will become more accurate, but It may be necessary to rely on other handicapping techniques early in the schedule.


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