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HOW TO CALCULATE POWER RATINGS

How To Calculate Power Ratings
by Website Staff

Basic Power Rating

Many sports bettors use basketball and football statistics to calculate power ratings which gives them a convenient and useful ranking system. Power ratings can also be used to create a mock pointspread. A difference between the pointspread created by the sports bettor and the odds offered by the sportsbook may indicate value for the bettor. The most common statistics used to calculate power ratings are points scored and points scored against.

Basic PR = ((Points Scored - Points Scored Against) /Games Played) +100

Advanced Power Rating

Unfortunately, basic power ratings do not consider a team's strength of schedule. A more accurate power rating can be calculated by averaging a teams Basic PR with their opponents power ratings. First average the Basic PR of all the opponents.

Opponent PR = (Basic PR Opponent1 + Basic PR Opponent2 + Basic PR Opponent3 + ...) /Number of Opponents

Next calculate the Advanced PR.

Advanced PR = (Basic PR + Opponent PR) /2

Weighted Power Rating

It is logical to assume that a teams recent results are a good indicator of how they will perform in their next game. To account for this situation it is necessary to give more weight to recent games.

Calculate a second advanced power rating for each team using only recent games and then average the two advanced power ratings. Averaging the two power ratings doubles the weight of recent games because they are used twice in the formula.

Weighted PR = (Advanced PR + Recent Advanced PR) /2

Mock Pointspread

Power ratings can be used to predict the outcome of a game. Subtract the Away Team PR from the Home Team PR, add 3.0 points for home field advantage and multiply the result by (-1). A negative pointspread indicates a Home Favorite and a positive pointspread indicates a Home Underdog.

Example:
Home Team PR = 104.0
Away Team PR = 99.5

Pointspread = ((Home Team PR - Away Team PR) + 3.0) *-1

Pointspread = ((104.0 – 99.5) + 3.0) *-1 = -7.5

It is predicted that the home team will win the game by 7.5 points.

As the season progresses and data is collected the power ratings will become more accurate, but It may be necessary to rely on other handicapping techniques early in the schedule.


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