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HOW TO CALCULATE POWER RATINGS

How To Calculate Power Ratings
by Website Staff

Many sports bettors use basketball and football statistics to calculate power ratings which gives them a convenient and useful ranking system. Power ratings can also be used to create a mock pointspread. A difference between the point spread created by the sports bettor and the odds offered by the sportsbook may indicate value for the bettor.

Basic Power Rating

Margin of victory, points scored minus points scored against is the most common calculation used to formulate power ratings.

Game Points Scored Points Against Margin (M)
1 17 20 -3
2 21 31 -10
3 14 10 4
4 24 13 11

Basic Power Rating
= (M1 + M2 + M3 + M4) /Games Played + 100
= (-3 + -10 + 4 + 11) /4 + 100
= 100.5

Weighted Power Rating

It is logical to assume that a team's most recent results are the best indicators of how they will perform in their next game. To account for this tendency, it is necessary to give more weight to recent games.

For each team multiply the margin of victory for every game by the numerical order in whch it was played. The margin of victory for game one is multiplied by 1, the margin of victory for game two is multiplied by 2 and so forth.

Therefore game four will have a weight of 4 which is twice as much as game two and four times as much as game one. The weighted margins for each team's games are added and divided by the sum of the multipliers. After four games the multiplier sum is ten; 1 + 2 +3 + 4 = 10.

Weighted Power Rating
= (M1*1 + M2*2 + M3*3 + M4*4) /Multiplier Sum + 100
= (-3*1 + -10*2 + 4*3 + 11*4) /10 + 100
= (-3 + -20 + 12 + 44) /10 + 100
= 103.3

Combined Power Rating

Unfortunately, basic and weighted power ratings do not consider a team's strength of schedule. A more accurate power rating can be calculated by averaging either a team's basic or weighted power rating with the current power ratings of their previous opponents.

Calculate Team 1's combined power rating after playing four opponents.

Team Power Rating (PR)
1 103.3
2 107
3 102.5
4 97.8
5 99.1

First average the basic or weighted power ratings of Team 1's opponents.

= (Team 2 PR + Team 3 PR + Team 4 PR + Team 5 PR) /4
= (107.0 + 102.5 + 97.8 + 99.1) /4
= 101.6

Average this value with the corresponding power rating from Team 1.

Final Power Rating
= (103.3 + 101.6) /2
= 102.5

Point Spread

Power ratings can be used to predict the outcome of a game. Subtract the away team power rating from the home team power rating and add 3.0 points for home field advantage.

Team Power Rating (PR)
Home 102.5
Away 99.5

Point Spread
= Home PR - Away PR + 3.0
= 102.5 – 99.5 + 3.0
= 6.0

The home team is favored to win the game by 6.0 points. A negative result would indicate a home underdog.

As the season progresses and data is collected the power ratings will become more accurate, but It may be necessary to rely on other handicapping techniques early in the schedule.


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