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BUYING AND SELLING HALF POINTS - POINT SPREADS

The half point charts show the push percent on NFL, NBA, NCAA football and basketball point spreads and can be used to determine when it is advantageous to buy or sell a half point.

For example the price column shows that there is a small advantage when buying a half point or hook on an NFL point spread from +7.0 to +7½ if the price is less than 14¢. Conversely it is also profitable to sell the hook on the same point spread if the sportsbook reduces the price or juice by more then 14¢.

The probability column shows the frequency of winning a bet after buying a half point. To illustrate, assume you have a 50% chance of winning a bet made on an NFL underdog getting +7.0 points. Buying a half point to +7½ would increase the probability of winning to 53.35%.

NFL 2009-18
Spread Push% Probability Price
pk 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
1 2.31% 51.16% $0.05
2 4.61% 52.30% $0.10
3 8.02% 54.01% $0.17
4 3.10% 51.55% $0.06
5 2.86% 51.43% $0.06
6 4.11% 52.05% $0.09
7 6.70% 53.35% $0.14
8 2.84% 51.42% $0.06
9 0.68% 50.34% $0.01
10 5.03% 52.52% $0.11
11 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
12 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
13 1.45% 50.72% $0.03
14 2.56% 51.28% $0.05
NBA 2009-18
Spread Push% Probability Price
pk 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
1 2.70% 51.35% $0.06
2 2.85% 51.43% $0.06
3 3.55% 51.77% $0.07
4 2.57% 51.29% $0.05
5 4.09% 52.05% $0.09
6 3.59% 51.79% $0.07
7 5.06% 52.53% $0.11
8 3.85% 51.92% $0.08
9 3.24% 51.62% $0.07
10 3.25% 51.62% $0.07
11 3.36% 51.68% $0.07
12 3.51% 51.76% $0.07
13 3.01% 51.50% $0.06
14 3.51% 51.76% $0.07
NCAA Football 2009-18
Spread Push% Probability Price
pk 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
1 3.31% 51.65% $0.07
2 1.97% 50.98% $0.04
3 7.55% 53.77% $0.16
4 2.83% 51.42% $0.06
5 1.56% 50.78% $0.03
6 1.47% 50.74% $0.03
7 6.42% 53.21% $0.14
8 2.61% 51.31% $0.05
9 0.80% 50.40% $0.02
10 4.42% 52.21% $0.09
11 2.73% 51.37% $0.06
12 1.47% 50.74% $0.03
13 1.40% 50.70% $0.03
14 3.77% 51.88% $0.08
NCAA Basketball 2014-18
Spread Push% Probability Price
pk 0.00% 50.00% $0.00
1 3.06% 51.53% $0.06
2 3.75% 51.88% $0.08
3 4.24% 52.12% $0.09
4 4.94% 52.47% $0.10
5 3.85% 51.92% $0.08
6 4.74% 52.37% $0.10
7 3.65% 51.83% $0.08
8 3.71% 51.86% $0.08
9 3.61% 51.81% $0.07
10 4.43% 52.21% $0.09
11 4.41% 52.21% $0.09
12 4.84% 52.42% $0.10
13 4.52% 52.26% $0.09
14 4.05% 52.03% $0.08

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