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How To Calculate Power Ratings
by Website Staff

Many sports bettors use basketball and football statistics to calculate power ratings which gives them a convenient and useful ranking system. Power ratings can also be used to create a mock pointspread. A difference between the point spread created by the sports bettor and the odds offered by the sportsbook may indicate value for the bettor.

Basic Power Rating (BPR)

Margin of victory, points scored minus points scored against is the most common calculation used to formulate power ratiings.

Game Points Scored Points Against Margin (M)
1 17 20 -3
2 21 31 -10
3 14 10 4
4 24 13 11

BPR = (M1 + M2 + M3 + M4) /No. of Games Played + 100

(-3 + -10 + 4 + 11) /4 + 100 = 100.5

Weighted Power Rating (WPR)

It is logical to assume that a team's most recent results are the best indicators of how they will perform in their next game. To account for this tendency, it is necessary to give more weight to recent games.

For each team multiply the margin of victory for every game by the numerical order in whch it was played. The margin of victory for game one is multiplied by 1, the margin of victory for game two is multiplied by 2 and so forth.

Therefore game four will have a weight of 4 which is twice as much as game two and four times as much as game one. The weighted margins for each team's games are added and divided by the sum of the multipliers. After four games the multiplier sum is ten. 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10.

WPR = (M1*1 + M2*2 + M3*3 + M4*4) /Multiplier Sum + 100

(-3*1 + -10*2 + 4*3 + 11*4) /10 + 100 = 103.3

Final Power Rating (FPR)

Unfortunately, basic and weighted power ratings do not consider a team's strength of schedule. A more accurate power rating can be calculated by averaging either a team's BPR or WPR with the current power ratings of their previous opponents. Calculate the final power rating for Team1 after playing Team2, Team3, Team4 and Team5.

Team1 PR = 103.3
Team2 PR = 107.0
Team3 PR = 102.5
Team4 PR = 97.8
Team5 PR = 99.1

FPR = [Team1 PR + (Team2 PR + Team3 PR + Team4 PR + Team5 PR) /No. of Opponents] /2

Add the basic or weighted power ratings of Team1 opponents and divide the sum by the total number of opponents.

(107.0 + 102.5 + 97.8 + 99.1) /4 = 101.6

Average this number with the corresponding power rating from Team1.

(103.3 + 101.6) /2 = 102.5

Point Spread

Power ratings can be used to predict the outcome of a game. Subtract the Away Team PR from the Home Team PR, add 3.0 points for home field advantage and multiply the result by (-1). A negative point spread indicates a Home Favorite and a positive point spread indicates a Home Underdog.

Home Team PR = 102.5
Away Team PR = 99.5

Point Spread = (Home Team PR - Away Team PR + 3.0) *-1

(102.5 – 99.5 + 3.0) *-1 = -6.0

It is predicted that the home team will win the game by 6.0 points.

As the season progresses and data is collected the power ratings will become more accurate, but It may be necessary to rely on other handicapping techniques early in the schedule.

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